Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.65% in the financial year 2025–26, according to updated estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee on 19 October. The revised figure is slightly below the previously reported 3.70%, while fourth-quarter growth was recorded at 2.0%. The numbers offer a more detailed picture than a single headline: some sectors improved, while manufacturing and parts of services remained under pressure.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) puts the economy’s size at US$450.4 billion and per-capita income at US$1,896 for FY2025–26. These are official estimates, not a measure of how evenly income is distributed or whether household purchasing power has improved for every family.
What changed in the revised GDP estimate?
The National Accounts Committee lowered the annual growth estimate from 3.70% to 3.65%. It also updated the quarterly growth figures for the first three quarters: Q1 was revised to 3.89%, Q2 to 4.31%, and Q3 to 4.42%. Growth in Q4 was 2.0%, pointing to a slower finish to the fiscal year.
Revisions are a normal part of national accounting as more complete data become available. They do not, on their own, mean that economic activity suddenly changed after the year ended. They do mean that analysts, businesses and policymakers should use the latest official series when comparing performance.
Agriculture, industry and services: three different pictures
The updated estimates put agriculture growth at 3.50%, industry at 3.34%, and services at 3.81%. Agriculture’s growth estimate improved from the earlier figure, with the PBS update reporting stronger estimates for important crops and several other crop categories. The detailed results should be read alongside crop-specific production data, input costs, water availability and farm-gate prices; GDP growth alone cannot show whether farmers’ margins improved.
Industry was revised down to 3.34% from 3.51%. Within large-scale manufacturing, the growth estimate was revised to 5.01% from 6.11%. The official figures reported positive contributions in several groups, including automobiles and electrical equipment, while pharmaceuticals, iron and steel products, chemicals and leather products recorded contractions. This uneven pattern matters: a headline industrial growth number can conceal very different conditions across factories and supply chains.
Services growth was revised to 3.81% from 4.09%. Wholesale and retail trade grew more slowly than previously estimated, while information and communication and finance and insurance recorded improved estimates. These differences suggest that digital and selected financial activities were more resilient than some traditional trade activity, although sector growth figures do not reveal how many new jobs were created or the quality of those jobs.
Why the 2% fourth-quarter figure deserves attention
Annual growth combines activity across the full fiscal year, so a 3.65% annual rate can sit alongside a weaker final quarter. The Q4 figure of 2.0% is therefore an important signal to watch, but it should not be treated as proof that every sector contracted. The next releases of production, trade, employment, prices and investment data will help show whether the slowdown was broad-based or concentrated in particular industries.
What the figures mean for households and businesses
- For households: GDP growth is not the same as a rise in real wages. Inflation, utility bills, food prices and employment conditions determine how recovery feels in daily life.
- For businesses: sector-level differences can help guide inventory, hiring and investment decisions, but companies should combine national figures with their own sales and cost data.
- For policymakers: the data point to the need to sustain productive investment and address constraints affecting manufacturing, trade and job creation rather than relying on one aggregate number.
- For agriculture: stronger crop estimates are encouraging, but farm profitability depends on yields, input costs, market access and the prices farmers actually receive.
What to watch next
Readers should follow future PBS national accounts updates and the underlying sector tables, rather than comparing isolated figures from different releases. Useful indicators include large-scale manufacturing, crop output, exports, private investment, employment and inflation. The PBS summary of the 118th National Accounts Committee meeting provides the latest official headline estimates.
For wider context, see Verity Pakistan’s explainer on whether Pakistan can become a trillion-dollar economy. Long-term economic size depends on sustained real growth, productivity, investment and stability—not just one year’s nominal dollar value.
Sources and image credit
Primary source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, National Accounts. Additional reporting: Dawn, 20 October 2026.
Featured image: illustrative cityscape photograph by Rohan Gangopadhyay via Unsplash; it is not a photograph of a specific Pakistani economic facility.